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☆ CNBC Daily Open: A projection is not a promise
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Clement Tan | In Clemtan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineU.S. Federal Reserve officials are dampening rate cut expectations again, and again. In comments echoing those of the Federal Open Market Committee's two weeks ago, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday she expects cuts this year — but wants to see more convincing evidence that inflation has been subdued. "Three rate cuts is a projection, and a projection is not a promise," Daly said.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Mary Daly, Daly, Loretta Mester, Vishnu Varathan, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Cleveland Federal, Malaysian, U.S Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Japan

☆ 10-year Treasury yield edges higher as investors await economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Yields and prices move in opposite directions, and one basis point equals 0.01%. The 2-year Treasury note yield was up around 1 basis point at 4.709%. The 10-year Treasury note briefly broke above 4.4% in intraday trade on Tuesday to notch its highest level since late November. The 10-year Treasury note yield moved higher on Wednesday, building on gains from the previous session as investors await the release of further U.S. economic data. The market moves come as investors track economic data and closely monitor clues from Fed policymakers about the expected number of interest rate cuts in 2024.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Mary Daly, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, Traders, Cleveland Federal, San Francisco Fed, PMI, Institute for Supply Management Locations: U.S

☆ Fed's Mester still expects rate cuts this year, but rules out May
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Tuesday she still expects interest rate cuts this year, but ruled out the next policy meeting in May. Should that continue, rate cuts are likely, though she didn't offer any guidance on timing or extent. While looking for rate cuts, Mester said she thinks the long-run federal funds rate will be higher than the long-standing expectation of 2.5%. After the March meeting, the long-rate rate projection moved up to 2.6%, indicating there are other members leaning higher. Mester noted the rate was very low when the Covid pandemic hit and gave the Fed little wiggle room to boost the economy.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Mester Organizations: Cleveland Federal, Market Locations: Cleveland

☆ Everyone is worried about inflation. Here’s why it’s tracked two different ways
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Housing, housing and more housingThe housing sector carries more than four times as much weight in CPI compared to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. But, with PCE, housing has a much more limited impact on the inflation index. Both indexes are faulted for using this metric to calculate housing inflationBoth indexes use a widely criticized metric called owners’ equivalent rent (OER) to track housing inflation. But it can often take months for these trends to show up in either the PCE or CPI housing indexes. Another issue with using OER to track housing inflation is that it doesn’t really affect homeowners.

Persons: Joe Biden, Frederic J . Brown, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Cleveland Federal Reserve, PCE, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Getty, Commerce Department, Bank of America Locations: New York, November’s, AFP

☆ Premarket stocks: Why another unexpectedly hot jobs report could derail markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Wall Street was taken aback by the US labor market’s resilience in January. Another unexpectedly hot report could shake things up again. The January jobs report showed that the US economy added a stunning 353,000 jobs that month and the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%. The new EU regulations force sweeping changes on some of the world’s most widely used tech products, including Apple’s app store, Google search and messaging platforms, including Meta’s WhatsApp. The broad obligations apply only to the EU, which could leave tech users in the United States and other markets looking longingly at some of the features Big Tech is rolling out in response to the European directive.

Persons: Jerome Powell, he’s, “, ” Powell, Bonnie Cash, —, ’ ”, BeiChen Lin, It’s, Loretta Mester, ”, José Torres, Meta’s, Brian Fung, Apple, Bing, Read, Elisabeth Buchwald, NYCB, Steven Mnuchin’s, Alessandro DiNello, ” Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Financial, Capitol, Reuters, Traders, Russell Investments, ” Cleveland Federal, CNBC, Market, Interactive Brokers, Apple, Google, Union citizens, Big Tech, New York Community Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Liberty Strategic Capital Locations: New York, Washington ,, United States, NYCB, Silicon

☆ Asia markets mostly poised to track Wall Street gains; Japan to fall
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester on Tuesday became the latest central banker to advocate a patient approach to cutting interest rates this year. Like several other officials who have spoken recently, Mester said she's not ready to start easing policy until she gains more confidence that inflation is on a stable path towards the Fed's 2% goal. Having a strong economy allows policymakers to hold off on any dramatic moves, she added. "My base case is that we will do so at a gradual pace so that we can continue to manage the risks to both sides of our mandate." Markets have moved back expectations for the first cut to May, with five total quarter percentage point moves lower priced in, according to the CME Group's FedWatch futures gauge.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Mester, she's, Jeff Cox Organizations: Cleveland Federal, Market

☆ Current policy rate lets Fed be 'nimble' with incoming data, Mester says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, speaks during an interview in Manhattan, New York, U.S., August 15, 2017. The central bank's rate policy will need to be "nimble" and "I believe the current level of the (federal) funds rate positions us well to do that." Mester, who will retire from the regional Fed bank next June, spoke two weeks ahead of the Fed's Dec. 12-13 policy meeting. That gathering is widely expected to result in no change in the current 5.25%-5.50% policy rate range. She noted that Fed rate hikes have tightened financial conditions and moderated demand at a time when supply chains have been healing.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Shannon Stapleton, Mester, Mester's, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, REUTERS, Cleveland Federal, Fed, Financial, FOMC, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York, U.S, Chicago

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Investors got the note they were too optimistic
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

In this article AAPLAMZNTSLABXWMTBABA.FKRX300 Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTTraders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. Brendan Mcdermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. To that end, Mester doesn't see rate cuts on the horizon. Perhaps investors shouldn't be so sure about impending rate cuts too.

Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Doug McMillon, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Loretta Mester, isn't, Mester, Lisa Cook Organizations: BABA, New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Walmart, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Cleveland Federal Locations: New York City, U.S, San Francisco

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Investors realize they've been too optimistic
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

In this article 7201.T-JPVOW3-DEMETAGOOGL.FKRX300BABABABAWMTAMZN Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTTraders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. Brendan Mcdermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. To that end, Mester doesn't see rate cuts on the horizon. Perhaps investors shouldn't be so sure about impending rate cuts too.

Persons: VOW3, FKRX300 BABA BABA, Brendan Mcdermid, Doug McMillon, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Loretta Mester, isn't, Mester, Lisa Cook Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Walmart, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Cleveland Federal Locations: New York City, U.S, San Francisco

☆ Fed's Mester wants 'much more evidence' that inflation has been defeated
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"We're making progress on inflation, discernible progress. "We're going to have to see much more evidence that inflation is on that timely path back to 2%. But we do have really good evidence that it has made progress and now it's just, is it continuing?" Following the reports, market pricing in the futures market completely eliminated the possibility that the Fed would be approving any additional interest rate hikes. Comparing the Fed's position to navigating a ship, Mester said, "We're at the crow's nest.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Mester, CNBC's Steve Liesman, hasn't Organizations: Cleveland Federal, Labor Department Locations: midyear

☆ Cleveland Fed launches search for new leader after Mester leaves
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Cleveland Federal Reserve launched a search Wednesday for its new leader, after current President Loretta Mester retires in mid-2024. A committee comprised of Cleveland Fed board members will conduct the search. "President Mester's strong leadership over the past decade has positioned the Cleveland Fed as an important resource to the community and the nation," Gartland said. "We are committed to finding a new leader who can ensure the Bank continues to meet the high standard that President Mester has set." Whomever leads the Cleveland Fed will get a vote in 2024 on the central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Heidi Gartland, Mester's, Gartland, Mester Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Bank, Market

☆ Asia markets set to fall ahead of regional inflation readings and South Korea growth figures
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Friday she expects that interest rates likely won't be raised much more from here, if at all. "Regardless of the decision made at our next meeting, if the economy evolves as anticipated, in my view, we are likely near or at a holding point on the funds rate as we accumulate more information on economic and financial developments and assess the effects of the tightening in financial conditions that has already occurred," Mester said in remarks delivered for a speech in New York. The central bank official added that she agrees with Federal Open Market Committee estimate in September that another rate hike could come before the end of 2023, but noted that handicapping such moves is difficult now. Mester is not a voting member of the FOMC this year but will vote in 2024.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Mester, — Jeff Cox Organizations: Cleveland Federal, Open Locations: New York

☆ Morning Bid: Bond squeeze abates as Middle East war in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A street sign for Wall Street hangs in front of the New York Stock Exchange May 8, 2013. Dallas Fed cheif Lorie Logan added overnight that recent data and bond yield moves gave the central bank space. Reactions in the market were curious, however, with implied Fed policy rates in the futures market and two-year Treasury yields easing back even as 10-year yields chomped at the 5% bit. The resulting further disinversion of the yield curve to show the gap between two and 10-year yields at its lowest in a year is some testament to that. But with another nervous weekend around the Israel-Gaza war ahead, when markets are closed or illiquid, Friday trading has shifted the focus back to short-term safety hedges.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Lorie Logan, Huntington, Loretta Mester, Patrick Harker, Joe Biden, Charles Michel, Ursula von der Leyen, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Atlanta Federal, Dallas Fed, Bank of Japan, L'Oreal, American Express, Interpublic, Schlumberger, Cleveland Federal, Philadelphia Fed, European Council, European Commission Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Israel, Gaza, Europe, China, Comerica, Huntington Bancshares, Washington

☆ Fed's Mester open to another rate hike if economy stays on current path
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"I probably favor going again, but again, we're going to have to wait and see how the economy evolves." Mester said she expects inflation to return to 2% by the close of 2025. "We're going to have to follow that and watch it and that will influence not only our policy decisions, but how the economy evolves," Mester said. "Over the next year, those tighter or higher rates will have an impact on the economy and we just have to take that into account when we're setting monetary policy." Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Mester, Michael S, Jonathan Oatis, Paul Simao Organizations: Cleveland Federal, U.S, Fed, Thomson Locations: bank's

☆ Morning Bid: Early Labor Day for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 1 - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanLabor Day comes a bit earlier for markets this year, with Friday's release of the critical August jobs report coming just ahead of Monday's end-of-season U.S. holiday. A series of updates showed private sector hiring slowing in August, while job openings fell back in July and layoffs jumped. On the flipside, more up-to-date weekly jobless claims fell again and the consensus payrolls estimate has ticked higher from 150,000 only last week. Going into Friday's report, futures markets remain split and stand 50-50 on the chances of another hike by November. And whatever they think about peak rates, markets are also grappling with the prospect of rates staying up here for some time.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, JP Morgan, Saola, Gita Gopinath, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Alexander Smith Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Labor, JP, Atlanta, HK, European Central Bank, Broadcom, Treasury, P Global, Cleveland Federal, Atlanta Fed, Reuters Graphics, United States Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Hong Kong, Europe

☆ Gold holds ground as markets gauge U.S. rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices firmed on Monday despite U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish stance on interest rates as markets sought direction from economic data this week for confirmation on the rate trajectory. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,916.19 per ounce by 0354 GMT, U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $1,943.90. "However, much still awaits on a sustained recovery in gold prices for now, given that concerns of re-accelerating inflation on U.S. economic resilience are translating into mounting bets of a November rate hike." A series of economic data this week, with the U.S. non-farm payroll report on Friday will likely to provide a sharper focus on the economy's strength.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, Jun Rong, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Loretta Mester Organizations: Aurum, U.S, Federal, IG, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, U.S . Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

"The longer we let inflation remain above 2%, we're building in a higher and higher price level," she said, and that hurts American households. "I'm going to have to reassess that because, again, it's going to be, how quickly do you think inflation is moving down?" "I do not want to be in a position of prematurely loosening policy," Mester said. Fed projections submitted in June show a median forecast for 2.1% inflation by the end of 2025; Mester said hers was for 2% inflation. The Fed's next and possibly last rate hike "doesn't necessarily have to be September, but I think this year," she said.

Persons: JACKSON, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Loretta Mester, Mester, Ann Saphir, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: , WYOMING, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ We 'probably have more work to do' to get the underlying inflation, says Cleveland Fed president
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe 'probably have more work to do' to get the underlying inflation, says Cleveland Fed presidentLoretta Mester, Cleveland Federal Reserve president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how much Mester's outlook has changed, what's happening in the global macro economy, and more.

Persons: Loretta Mester Organizations: Cleveland Fed, Cleveland Federal Reserve

☆ Looming inflation report could hold an unpleasant surprise for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The central bank district's Inflation Nowcast model points to a 0.4% rise that would equate to a 3.4% annual rate. "Rent could be an important source of a positive (moderating) surprise in July's CPI," Yardeni wrote. 'Sticky' inflation persists But inflation has proven more persistent than most policymakers, particularly those at the Fed, would have thought. In fact, the Atlanta Fed's sticky CPI is still at 5.8% on a 12-month basis — though 2.9% at an annualized pace — after peaking at 6.7% earlier this year. Moreover, Thursday's core CPI reading is expected to show core inflation running at a 4.7% annual level, just a tad below the June reading.

Persons: Dow Jones, it's, Ed Yardeni, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lisa Shalett, Shalett, Morgan, Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Andrew Hollenhorst, Hollenhorst, Solita Marcelli Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve, Yardeni Research, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, CPI, Cleveland Fed, UBS Locations: U.S, Atlanta

☆ Banks can manage outflow risk in Fed's new payment service system, Mester says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Mester acknowledged concerns that FedNow, a real-time, all-hours payment system the central bank is making available to banks, could exacerbate banking troubles by facilitating fast outflows from financial institutions, in effect super-charging a potential bank run. She said it will be up to the users of FedNow themselves to use transfer limits. "Future releases of the FedNow Service may allow configurable transaction limits by customer type, if such limits are deemed useful," she added. Mester said banks can also plan for how they can tap Fed emergency lending and private sources of liquidity, should they need it. Mester's comments on mitigating the financial stability risks of the real-time payment system were rooted in events in the spring, when trouble at a limited number of banks spooked the global financial system, and were in part rooted in anxious customers moving funds from affected banks very quickly.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Mester, Banks, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: YORK, Cleveland Federal, National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Jobs glow, crude pops, dollar lifts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets retained a warm afterglow from Friday's shining U.S. employment reading, with only minor gains in crude oil prices on Saudi Arabia's output cut clouding the picture. While Brent crude oil prices popped up about $1 per barrel on the Saudi output cut plans, the move was limited and year-on-year crude losses continue to clock some 35%. May U.S. service sector readings dominate the Monday diary, as does the likely start of Treasury rebuilding its depleted coffers with 3- and 6-month bill auctions. Soundings from China's service sector earlier helped partly to offset fears that dour factory readings questioned its post-COVID recovery. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Russell, Morgan, Mehmet Simsek, Christine Lagarde, Loretta Mester, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Apple, Brent, Treasury, Wall Street, Global, Central Bank, Cleveland Federal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Saudi, Asia

☆ Fed's Mester sees policy rate over 5% and 'soft landing' on horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Mester, who does not have a vote on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, spoke less than two weeks before the Fed's May 2-3 policy meeting. The central bank is widely expected to hike rates a final time at that meeting, lifting its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.00%-5.25% range. Noting a need to be "prudent" with policy, Mester said this possible change in financial conditions "would work in the same direction as tighter monetary policy," which the Fed will need to take stock of "to help us calibrate the appropriate path of monetary policy going forward." Mester said she expects the unemployment rate, which is currently 3.5%, to rise to between 4.5% and 4.75%. "The 'soft landing,' of course, is what we're aiming for," Mester said, referring to a scenario in which monetary tightening slows the economy, and inflation, without triggering a recession.

☆ Gold slips on firmer dollar ahead of US payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File PhotoApril 6 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell on Thursday as the dollar firmed ahead of a much awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls report, as investors sought clarity on whether the Federal Reserve might take a breather on its monetary tightening path. * Investors now await Friday's non-farm payrolls report for March, with economists polled by Reuters expecting new jobs of about 240,000. * Markets see a 54.2% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. * While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal.

☆ Gold off one-year highs as dollar firms ahead of U.S. payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices slipped from one-year highs on Thursday as the dollar regained some ground, while investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report to gage the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy. The economic data points this week were major components supporting gold prices, he added, while also noting some profit-booking ahead of the Good Friday holiday. Wednesday's data showed the U.S. services sector slowed more than expected in March. While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal. Markets see a 53.8% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates in May, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

The underlying trend though for the dollar remained tilted to the downside and Wednesday's U.S. private sector jobs numbers affirmed that. The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, suggesting a cooling labor market. Private employment increased by 145,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 200,000. Another report on Wednesday also indicated continued economic weakness, this time in the services sector.

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